隨著深度學(xué)習(xí)技術(shù)的迅猛發(fā)展，大模型等生成式人工智能技術(shù)已經(jīng)成為眾多行業(yè)關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)。這些新出現(xiàn)的技術(shù)具有一定的雙重性，不僅為軍事智能化提供了創(chuàng)新型的方案和更廣闊的發(fā)展空間，同時(shí)也帶來(lái)了新的挑戰(zhàn)。例如，以ChatGPT 為代表的人工智能模型，由美國(guó)人工智能實(shí)驗(yàn)室開發(fā)，在意識(shí)形態(tài)領(lǐng)域可能存在被用于收集情報(bào)和散布反華言論的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，因此可能被西方的某些敵對(duì)力量所利用。從技術(shù)發(fā)展的角度來(lái)看，美國(guó)軍方已經(jīng)開始探索基于這些大模型的軍事應(yīng)用，有可能因此增強(qiáng)其軍事能力，對(duì)我國(guó)形勢(shì)產(chǎn)生不利影響 [1]。本文深入探討大模型在軍事領(lǐng)域的應(yīng)用，評(píng)估國(guó)內(nèi)外主要軍事大模型產(chǎn)品，分析其優(yōu)劣勢(shì)及對(duì)算力基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的需求，提出我國(guó)在軍事大模型發(fā)展方面的策略與建議。

　　With the rapid development of deep learning technology, generative artificial intelligence technologies such as large models have become the focus of attention in many industries. These emerging technologies have a certain duality, not only providing innovative solutions and broader development space for military intelligence, but also bringing new challenges. For example, the artificial intelligence model represented by ChatGPT, developed by the American artificial intelligence laboratory, may be used to collect intelligence and spread anti China remarks in the ideological field, so it may be used by some hostile forces in the West. From the perspective of technological development, the US military has begun exploring military applications based on these large models, which may enhance its military capabilities and have a negative impact on China's security situation. This article explores in depth the application of large models in the military field, evaluates major military large model products at home and abroad, analyzes their advantages and disadvantages, and their demand for computing infrastructure. It proposes strategies and suggestions for the development of military large models in China.

　　大模型的概念

　　The concept of large models

　　大模型是指具有數(shù)千萬(wàn)甚百萬(wàn)億個(gè)參數(shù)的深度學(xué)習(xí)或機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)模型。大模型通過(guò)對(duì)包含海量高質(zhì)量數(shù)據(jù)集的數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)進(jìn)行復(fù)雜性建模，使用強(qiáng)大的計(jì)算能力估計(jì)模型參數(shù)，來(lái)找到數(shù)據(jù)之間的關(guān)系。以 ChatGPT 為例，其模型架構(gòu)基于人工智能技術(shù)中的自然語(yǔ)言處理和深度學(xué)習(xí)技術(shù)生成，參數(shù)數(shù)量高達(dá) 1750 億。通過(guò)預(yù)先訓(xùn)練一個(gè)龐大的數(shù)據(jù)集，它可以學(xué)習(xí)這些數(shù)據(jù)中的語(yǔ)言規(guī)則和模式。利用“人在回路”的方法進(jìn)行優(yōu)化，通過(guò)與用戶的互動(dòng)改進(jìn)自身的反饋和輸出內(nèi)容，提供高度逼真的對(duì)話場(chǎng)景 [2]。

　　A large model refers to a deep learning or machine learning model with millions or even trillions of parameters. Big models model the complexity of databases containing massive high-quality datasets, using powerful computing power to estimate model parameters and find relationships between data. Taking ChatGPT as an example, its model architecture is based on natural language processing and deep learning techniques in artificial intelligence, with a parameter count of up to 175 billion. By pre training a large dataset, it can learn language rules and patterns from this data. Using the "human in the loop" method for optimization, improving feedback and output content through interaction with users, providing highly realistic dialogue scenes.大模型的軍事應(yīng)用范圍

　　The military application scope of large models

　　包括美國(guó)空軍部長(zhǎng)弗蘭克·肯德爾在內(nèi)的世界各地的軍事們預(yù)測(cè)，大模型技術(shù)可以在戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)上幫助完成任務(wù)并做出決策。盡管在高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)情況下依賴它們尚需時(shí)日，但人們普遍認(rèn)為它們將不可避免地在戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)中發(fā)揮作用，并可能在以下 6個(gè)關(guān)鍵領(lǐng)域發(fā)揮決定性作用 [3]。1. 信息收集與情報(bào)分析人工智能大模型完全改變了信息收集和情報(bào)分析的方法，它們利用了大量來(lái)自衛(wèi)星圖像、雷達(dá)信號(hào)和社交媒體的數(shù)據(jù)。大模型技術(shù)一方面可以憑借強(qiáng)大的語(yǔ)言分析能力實(shí)時(shí)提取情報(bào)信息，如新聞報(bào)道等開放源代碼資訊；另一方面還能生成與戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)態(tài)勢(shì)快速融合的各類情報(bào)信息，減少處理海量數(shù)據(jù)的壓力和分析偏差，能及時(shí)響應(yīng)用戶的不同需求并提供多樣化的選擇，縮短從資訊到情報(bào)的生成時(shí)間。大模型技術(shù)通過(guò)整合多源數(shù)據(jù)和運(yùn)用深度學(xué)習(xí)算法，能夠在戰(zhàn)略決策中發(fā)揮關(guān)鍵作用，識(shí)別隱藏模式、異常行為和潛在威脅，幫助軍隊(duì)更好地理解和應(yīng)對(duì)復(fù)雜的形勢(shì)，提供對(duì)戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)的理解。人工智能大模型可以通過(guò)實(shí)時(shí)分析和預(yù)測(cè)，發(fā)現(xiàn)關(guān)鍵的情報(bào)并提供給軍方，幫助其做出正確決定 [4]。

　　Military experts around the world, including US Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall, predict that big model technology can help complete missions and make decisions on the battlefield. Although relying on them in high-risk situations may take time, it is widely believed that they will inevitably play a role in war and may play a decisive role in the following six key areas. 1. Information collection and intelligence analysis: Artificial intelligence models have completely changed the methods of information collection and intelligence analysis, utilizing a large amount of data from satellite images, radar signals, and social media. On the one hand, big model technology can extract real-time intelligence information, such as open source information such as news reports, through its powerful language analysis capabilities; On the other hand, it can also generate various intelligence information that can quickly integrate with the battlefield situation, reduce the pressure and analysis bias of processing massive data, respond to different user needs in a timely manner, and provide diversified choices, shortening the time from information to intelligence generation. Big model technology can play a key role in strategic decision-making by integrating multi-source data and applying deep learning algorithms, efficiently identifying hidden patterns, abnormal behaviors, and potential threats, helping the military better understand and respond to complex security situations, and providing a comprehensive understanding of the battlefield. Artificial intelligence big models can discover key intelligence and provide it to the military through real-time analysis and prediction, helping them make the right decisions.

　　2. 武器系統(tǒng)開發(fā)大模型技術(shù)能夠通過(guò)提高軟件開發(fā)的效率，從根本上加速武器系統(tǒng)的研發(fā)。在傳統(tǒng)研發(fā)模式下，武器系統(tǒng)軟件的研發(fā)需要編程人員長(zhǎng)期開展協(xié)同工作。大模型技術(shù)擁有的自動(dòng)生成代碼能力使得非計(jì)算機(jī)人員也可以勝任一定的研發(fā)工作，進(jìn)而大大縮短軟件研發(fā)時(shí)間。此外，在武器系統(tǒng)生成過(guò)程中，大模型技術(shù)還可以通過(guò)生成機(jī)器人控制代碼，實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)武器裝備生產(chǎn)過(guò)程的精確控制，降低人力成本，提高研發(fā)效率。美軍正積極開發(fā)具備不受人為干預(yù)，能提高作戰(zhàn)精度、降低傷亡風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，并在復(fù)雜環(huán)境下擴(kuò)展作戰(zhàn)能力的人工智能大模型在自主武器系統(tǒng)領(lǐng)域的應(yīng)用潛力 [5]。

　　2. The large-scale model technology for weapon system development can fundamentally accelerate the development of weapon systems by improving the efficiency of software development. Under the traditional research and development model, the development of weapon system software requires long-term collaborative work by professional programmers. The automatic code generation capability possessed by big model technology enables non computer professionals to be competent in certain research and development work, thereby greatly reducing software development time. In addition, in the process of weapon system generation, large model technology can also achieve precise control of the weapon equipment production process by generating robot control codes, reducing labor costs and improving research and development efficiency. The US military is actively developing artificial intelligence models with the potential to improve combat accuracy, reduce casualty risks, and expand combat capabilities in complex environments without human intervention in the field of autonomous weapon systems.

　　3. 軍事訓(xùn)練與作戰(zhàn)仿真大模型技術(shù)可以通過(guò)不斷饋送訓(xùn)練數(shù)據(jù)、沉淀和消化前人及各參與單位的經(jīng)驗(yàn)實(shí)現(xiàn)自動(dòng)進(jìn)化，使訓(xùn)練經(jīng)驗(yàn)?zāi)茉跁r(shí)間維度上縱向傳承、在參與單位之間橫向傳遞，并通過(guò)分析歷史作戰(zhàn)案例，提取訓(xùn)練要點(diǎn)，提高軍隊(duì)軍事訓(xùn)練水平。同時(shí)，大模型技術(shù)還可以與智能任務(wù)規(guī)劃系統(tǒng)相結(jié)合，將分析結(jié)果轉(zhuǎn)化為特定的訓(xùn)練任務(wù)和場(chǎng)景?；诖?，大模型技術(shù)可以通過(guò)對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)的不斷吸收、分析和演變，實(shí)施有針對(duì)性的訓(xùn)練，不斷提高軍隊(duì)軍事訓(xùn)練效率。大模型技術(shù)與其他智能生成技術(shù)相結(jié)合將促進(jìn)作戰(zhàn)仿真的發(fā)展。作戰(zhàn)仿真是為軍事決策提供依據(jù)、提高軍事訓(xùn)練水平、驗(yàn)證武器裝備能力的重要技術(shù)，其核心是關(guān)鍵作戰(zhàn)要素的仿真還原。傳統(tǒng)的作戰(zhàn)仿真建模過(guò)程通常需要與計(jì)算機(jī)方面的合作，才能實(shí)現(xiàn)軍事構(gòu)想的落地，軍事人員往往難以獨(dú)立構(gòu)建虛擬戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)。依靠大模型技術(shù)自動(dòng)生成程序、文本、圖像、視頻甚模擬模型的能力，軍事人員可根據(jù)軍事需求，通過(guò)簡(jiǎn)單的人類語(yǔ)言描述，獨(dú)立、靈活地構(gòu)建作戰(zhàn)模擬場(chǎng)景，顯著提高作戰(zhàn)模擬能力 [5]。

　　3. Military training and combat simulation big model technology can achieve automatic evolution by continuously feeding training data, accumulating and digesting the experience of predecessors and participating units, so that training experience can be vertically inherited in the time dimension and horizontally transmitted between participating units. By analyzing historical combat cases, training points can be extracted to improve the military training level of the army. Meanwhile, big model technology can also be combined with intelligent task planning systems to transform analysis results into specific training tasks and scenarios. Based on this, big model technology can continuously absorb, analyze, and evolve data, implement targeted training, and continuously improve the efficiency of military training. The combination of big model technology and other intelligent generation technologies will promote the development of combat simulation. Combat simulation is an important technology that provides a basis for military decision-making, improves military training levels, and verifies weapon and equipment capabilities. Its core is the simulation and restoration of key combat elements. The traditional combat simulation modeling process usually requires collaboration with computer experts to achieve the implementation of military concepts, and military personnel often find it difficult to independently build virtual battlefields. By relying on large-scale modeling technology to automatically generate programs, text, images, videos, and even simulation models, military personnel can independently and flexibly construct combat simulation scenarios based on military needs through simple human language descriptions, significantly improving their combat simulation capabilities.

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